Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Was Belicheck's math right when he said: "I thought it was our best chance to win."

Was Bellichick's math right when he said "it was our best chance to win." I agree with him. Kick or pass: Which was a higher probability? Anyone want to offer an analysis?

Here's mine.

Probability of Patriots getting a first down on 4th and 2? I say 90%. It's only a guess but given the Patriots football prowess along with the element of surprise, I say they would have made it on average 9 out of every 10 times they tried it. On the other hand, punting to the Manning machine is a shaky 50-50 proposition at best. Also, what are the chances the receiver would bobble the ball? Video of play.

What do you think?


  1. An impassioned argument in favor of Bill Belichick's decision to go for a first down, including a variety of statistics is


    Another post from the same blog even includes a link to a downloadable spreadsheet for calculating percentages for various situations:


  2. Sorry the video is no longer available. Read the story of the play here.